Do you know the current unemployment rate in Nigeria? Read the article to learn this and the forecasts of this rate!
Unemployment rate forecasts are projected using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model calibrated using the analysts’ expectations.
They model the past behavior of a certain country’s unemployment rate using vast amounts of historical data. Then they adjust the coefficients of the econometric model by taking into account the analyst’s assessments and future expectations.
In 2012 Nigeria’s unemployment rate was only 6% of the population. That was a good coefficient even in comparing with high developed world countries. Unfortunately, this percentage has grown during the last years.
Currently the Nigerian unemployment rate is 12.1%. Unfortunately, it is expected to rise during this year. The expected rate by the end of the year is expected to be 13.8% of Nigerian population. This means that there will be around 12 000 in the whole country.
The forecasts of the unemployment are very promising, but let us not forget they are not accurate.
First of all, it is expected to reduce by the first quarter of 2017. The prognoses are that it’s going to be 13%. It is about 8500 unemployed persons.
By the year of 2020, the end of a current decade, the unemployment rate in Nigeria will significantly reduce. Do not forget that the population of the country is also expected to expand. 11% of Nigerian population - this is the exact meaning of the unemployment rate in 2020. This means around 7500 unemployed persons.
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