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Can The Nigerian Economy(gdp) Grow At 10% P.a. To Reach $800 Billion By 2020 ?

Well the so called govt has indicated this is the plan to move us to a top 20 economy by 2020. Our GDP today stands at about $ 320 billion +, for a country with 150 million people that sucks considering South Africa with 50 million people has a GDP of about $500 billion.

Instead of wasting our time calling each other names, could we answer this simple question ? Are we being taken for a ride ? Could the Nigerian economy(GDP) really grow at a rate of 10% p.a. to reach $800 billion by 2020 or is it just crap as usual ?

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YEP IT CAN. I READ WE CAN MAKE UP TO $7Bn from Cassava leaves not to talk of the CASSAVA itself so massive investment by the private sector(dont wait for govt) in agric plus induspsial parks(TO bypass NEPA) by MAN,OPS OR NACCIMA COULD take ur very close to the promised land

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yes.some of the basic means to attain such goal is to :

1 say no to corruption and nepotim.

2 say yes to education.

3 say yes to hardwork and discipline.

4 say yes to patrotism.

lets start from these,then the results they will produce will be aided by our additional resources.

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@papabrowne and pifa, how i got what Nigeria's GDP is i googled it and got the average of all the figures for our 2009 GDP figures. According to the CBN governor, Lamido speaking last week, our GDP grew by about 6% in 2009 and he maintained that a 10% growth is achievable if Agric, mining, power, manufacturing sectors are given a serious push.

World bank country director Onno Rhul has been drumming into the govts ears that oil will not give considerale growth as is evidenced by middle eastern states with much oil and less population than ours. What He's prescribing is that we focus on Entertainment(Nollywood and Music) and Agriculture. The problem is that do the archaic people in power understand these modern economic policies that will be needed ?

Apart from the power sector i don't really hear anything being said about a modern transport sector, a country with the population and size of Nigeria cannot rely on road for freight services and general mass transit cos of cost and limited capacity of trucks in comparison to rail. I believe even Lagos understands this thus the introduction of light rail services.

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@PapaBrowne

The 2000-2008 spike in GDP is skewed because of the high oil prices between 2006 and 2008. This is not a sustainable model for economic growth.

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Nigeria will need massive structural adjustment of its government, if the GDP is to grow beyond South Africa’s by 2020. If you look at federal spending, a staggering 57-60% of revenue is spent on recurring expenditure. That’s right! Sixty percent your money goes to paying the salaries of government employees, elected officials and other expenses to keep the government “functioning”.

No country can ever developed by skewing expenditure so heavily toward administrative costs. The individual states are even worse (with the exception of Lagos and a couple others, of course). Many of them blow over 68% of their annual budget on administrative expenditures.  I read somewhere that one governor in the north has a retinue of 2000 special assistants and advisers. Another was said to be ramping up his cabinet to match the bloated federal cabinet of 40.

One impediment to GDP growth is Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude oil. You don’t have to be an economist to see how quickly Nigeria’s revenue stream would dwindle, if oil prices were to suffer a major retrenchment.

If the country can realign its expenditure in favor of infrastructure development that will spur the industrialization of Nigeria, a GDP of $400-500b is quite possible by 2020. But I cannot see $800. It’s just impossible considering that 2020 is only ten years away.

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@edoyad

Where did you get the $320b figure for 2009?

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@Topic

I think we can pretty much get close to that without doing much- that is on the assumption that the price of oil stays high throughout the decade and with the hopes that there isn't another major economic slump btw now and 2020.

Nigeria, under President Obasanjo quadrupled its GDP in just 8 years from barely $50 billion in 99/2000 to well over $200 billion in 2008(see graph below), so mathematically speaking, it shouldn't be too hard to achieve $800 billion in ten years up.

The problem however is that Nigeria has a very funny or if you like absurd economic composition, such that a massive increase in GDP hasn't exactly translated into increased productivity, nor has it had much impact on the nation's poor!

Achieving a GDP of $800 billion would be good, but if there is no real increase in productivity, it is a huge waste of time as it wouldn't translate into jobs for the people.

In order to increase productivity, we need to restructure our economic map in such a way that would allow capital to flow into areas that geometrically generate more economic activity.

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Spending money is not the solution- it only serves as a drainpipe.

Changing the fundamental structures of power generation is what is needed.

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IF THEY INVEST 7 BILLION IN POWER SECTOR ALONE FOR THE NEXT 7 YEARS. THEN WE SHALL SURELY GET THERE.

POWER AGRICULTURE AND LIGHT INDUSTRY.

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YOU ARE BEING TAKEN FOR A RIDE, IT IS JUST A CRAP AS USUAL

You have a DO NOTHING STEALING GOVRNEMNT with 7 pointless agenda, visionless 2020, who have spent nearly 3 year looking after the President health all over the place GERMANY, SAUDI ARABIA.

The best way to get your answer to your question is where are the infrastructures to enable the growth of the Economy?

No power

No Roads,

No hospitals

No proper education

All government business

There is something that we are good in this country apart from corruption, it is called SELF DELUSION AND DENIAL.

If they are deceiving me, i better not deceive myself, PDP, Peoples deceiveing Party, poverty development party.

Just name one agenda that they have achieve in nearly 3 years, even the Amnesty was born out of self preservation of the income source of the ruling elites. They have not done anything and making excuse that President is sick abroad.

Don't waste your time abou this people, they are hopeless liars

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