Guys, I would like to know your opinion on this.
The problem with Nigeria is we have never had an elected president who actually wanted to be president and had a clear vision and programme before assuming office. The only exception is the first republic of course.
2nd republicShagari - was drafted into the race by pressure , he was a simple minded teacher. Awolowo who had a "vision or programme" never won
3rd republic - None of the candidates succedeed and MKO was robbed. Shonekan emerged from no where and just woke up and found himself head of state.
4th republic - Falae,Ekwueme, Bola Ige and others who actually wanted to be president with their own "programmes" did not emerge but OBJ was drafted in and rigged into power.
2007 - Atiku and Buhari who wanted to be president never emerged but our Yaradua was drafted in from mere obscurity in Katsina to be our president.
2009 - It seems our dear univeristy don 9 years ago is about to be president out of good luck, without any plan, programme or vision.
I also do not think Nigeria has ever had a duly elected president since the first republic.
A man with no vision or programme but found himself as president in my opinion can never make a good leader. He will spend all his time trying to formulte policy and will never have the time to implement it.
We are and only the most optimistic Nigerian would think otherwise. The system of Governance in Nigeria currently is very predictable. When you are leaving office , install weak and easily controlled cronies who will serve you and the cabals rather than principled leaders who want to serve Nigeria and Nigerians. Selected men rarely ever become decent leader. Yar Adua pledged to be a servant leader. What is he today ? Anyone expecting anything good from Jonathan has not studied our self-defeatist political climate that is now making informed Nigerians call for the 'Jerry Rawlings' option.
What is responsible for how David Mark (senate President) has so far prevented even a debate on the Presidents health when the issue is actually of vital national importance? Is it not obvious that mark is a 'gatekeeper' for the cabal regressing Nigeria? Jonathan is a 'gatekeeper' too so How can anyone then expect anything of Jonathan when he is actually a man OBJ et al put in place to just shut up and do as told ? Even now , Yayale is more a de facto President than the VP !!! If Jonathan becomes President nothing will change and things will possibly get worse.
Yar Adua is stubborn and principled even if it is warped principles . Jonathan , IMO , is entirely unprincipled and a total weakling with no allegiance to anything or anyone. It will be interesting to see how he will handle the bullying he will recieve from the various power factions. Let us not forget that Jonathan is a Southerner who is about to gain a Presidency zoned to the North . They will insist on controlling him from the background and he will not resist . Yar Adua, even if physically weak , is by far mentally stronger than Jonathan. Yar Adua stood up to OBJ , a notorious bully, fairly early in his Presidency at a time he had not even consolidated power !!! He turfed out Andy Ubah , OBJ's 'son' !!!
Jonathan , on the other hand has shown weakness, indecisiveness and subservience all his political life. He will be a tool in the hands of those who do not want Nigeria to do well because he has never shown the passion for effective and people-driven leadership at any stage in his political career.
Unfortunately we don't have the luxury to vet the Vice President right now
The number one rule to choosing a VP is to choose someone who can step in if any emergency arises, as such the VP is vetted on the same standard as the commander-in-chief. So we could only question his abilities when he was selected in 2007 and hence question President Yar'adua's judgement on National Security if we consider his VP weak.
The next time we have an opportunity to ask the same questions is in the run up to 2011 election if Yar'adua returns to power healthier.
We can only hope for the best, I don't expect much from the man, I was expecting that Yar'adua would have selected Donald Duke for VP. But for now we can only keep our fingers crossed if Jonathan becomes President. However I have no reason to believe that he will be more of a disaster compared to Yar'adua.
Right now defending the constitution is the only thing tha matters.
The EFCC , under Ribadu , nearly charged her to court for that offence and others until OBJ decided that Jonathan is the annointed VP and everything must be done to bring him forward even if "everything" meant ignoring the theft of Jonathan and his greedy wife. . Nigerians should be very afraid of a Jonathan Presidency. The man and his wife are crooks. Yar Adua , for all his faults, is probably not very materialistic even if Turai and others around Mr. President are robbing us blind. Jonathan will do the stealing himself just like OBJ. I don't know why we never learn our lessons in Nigeria . When have we ever had a decent selected leader , at Presidential level since democracy began , for us to be discussing the merit of gaining another selected President !!! When will we understand that our current number 1 to 3 top men have nothing good for Nigeria? Until we choose our President ourselves we should expect nothing from those imposed on us because they are there to serve the mafia cabals, godfathers and 'interest groups' that put them in their positions.
Check out his wife and you will find answer to that question. It was once reported in one of the dailies then that the wife was found with loads of dollars on her way out of the country when he was still the deputy governor in Bayelsa. The matter has since died a natural death.
Nigeria will soon be turned to "Plc" on the map.
Jonathan must be President . That is what our constitution stipulates.
If one looks at Jonathan pragmatically and dispassionately then one is only left to conclude that he will not be much different to Yar Adua. He may even be far worse !!!! Yar Adua is feudalistic . Even as he understands that he will have to protect OBJ throughout his tenure , he aligned with Northerners from his region and close circle to emasculate OBJ. This shows that Yar Adua is more beholden to his environment, culture and trusted regional/old friends than he is to any other consideration to include obeisance to a godfather or the effective leadership of Nigeria. He is ready to step on his godfathers toes for his region and buddies. Jonathan will never do same IMO.
Yar Adua, to me , suffers from the type of siege mentality indoctrination that will always make him loyal to what/who he believes in above everything else. It is obvious Yar Adua can be 'principled' when certain folks and considerations are involved. Yar Adua , for example, will never back OBJ against his Katsina buddies. If anything his close circle can now claim victory over OBJ with how they have convinced Yar Adua to neuter the former President.
Jonathan seems , to me , to be a man who has no passionate belief in anything. He is an institution man entirely . We all saw his role in ensuring Ekiti was won. He is more interested in ensuring the boat is not rocked than anything else. He wll not do anything visionary for Nigeria. I am no fan of Yar Adua but I commend him for two things (even as I still doubt the genuiness of his motives) i.e deregulation of the downstream sector and the ND amnesty programme. Both measures , if handled correctly, can move Nigeria forward.
Folks should be afraid of a Jonathan Presidency. All I see , and have always seen, from Goodluck is duplicity, weakness and a distinct lack of colour and charisma. He is not comfortable with power let alone understand how to use it well . Even ultimate power will not convince a very cautious and innately subservient individual that he is now the boss and he can now do what is right.
I hope , for the sake of Nigeria , that I am wrong.