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When Oil Finishes, What Next?

Oil is a non-renewable energy resource. Oloibiri (Bayelsa State), where the first oil well was discovered in 1965, challenges Nigeria to attend to the matter of diversifying the economy quickly. All that remains of Oloibiri today is the capped, emptied well, a reminder of the worse future that  awaits everyone. Oloibiri is abandoned to its fate – Nigeria will be too, when it is finally over. It is a matter of time, but the warnings are clear enough. Nigeria is replete with many different natural resources, so that there should be no problems exploiting them for the growth of the economy.

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58 answers

What does this even mean?

Anyways, you probably mixed up the Itsekiris with the Yorubas. An understandable mistake if that's the case.

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It is unfortunate you have not read up how Biafra came to be and also ignorant of the fact that eastern region of Nigeria had a functional constitution which was drawn by majority of eastern region minority delegates.

I have always believed in precedents. If the so-called Odua and Arewa republics will survive without Ndigbo and eastern region of Nigeria, why did Odua and Arewa foisted a war of attrition on Biafra?

This nonsensical phase about Igbo land being landlocked is propagandist ploy to abuse the mind of undiscerning onlooker such as eku_bear.

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I know you know that most Igbos are not like that, which is part of why you are a Biafra apologist.

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Funny Thread. I'm from AI. Truth be told, ibos will not suffer in a landlocked country. I'm serving in delta n most non-aniomas seem to adore the yorubas. If most ibos share the same sentiments as ezeuche, then it will in the interest of annang/efik/ibibios, ikwerres n ogonis to be on their own. That aside, i'm a biafra apologist

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^-- You misread me. I'm saying the Delta militants should fight for full control over the natural gas in their region. Then bring in investors with capital to develop it and sell it. Regarding derivation. . . 50%, 100%, I don't care so long as it is available in large amounts for purchase (that can be used to electrify the entire SW and fill it with factories.)

Cheaper to purchase pipelined NG from the Delta than LNG from abroad (roughly 1/2 the cost, if I remember correctly.)

And cheap power will give whoever has it a tremendous advantage when it comes to manufacturing things like electronics, cars, etc.

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Never mind Delta militants, the same principle applies to your ethnic OPC militia, why don't they campaign for gold to be mined in the South West for the benefit of all as opposed to the collaborators in power.

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When Oil Finishes, What Next?

Nigerians will condemn the leaders who surrendered Bakassi without a fight. We will suddenly remember that Bakassi was worth fighting for.

In reality oil will not finish, it will only become more difficult to extract making oil scarce and very expensive.

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@bashr4.Nwanaa,which part of igboland are you from?

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I do not know what you meant by selling Biafra to eastern minorities. The eastern minorities as you ascribed them held sway in governmental positions in the former eastern region of Nigerian that morphed into Biafra. Eastern minorities were head of government in eastern region, secretary to the government of both eastern region Nigeria and Biafra, was second in command of the Biafran armed forces, gave eastern region of the name- Biafra, was leader in the house of chiefs in eastern region of Nigeria, was Biafran ambassador to Britain and held numerous political positions both in eastern region and Biafra. The so-called eastern minorities were part and parcel of Biafra until final outcome of the war.

All these silly distancing and immoral denial were due to the fact Biafra the lost war. It is understandable from the political point that some eastern minorities engaged in shameful denial after all many Germans denied being citizen of Germany after the WWII.

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@Dede1: All that might be well and fine, but I suspect that when negotiating a new nation, they'll seek certain constitutional rights. That at the end of the day is more important than the things you mention. Anyway, it doesn't appear that any of these Akwa Ibom/Cross River folks have posted here yet. So mostly we are speculating until we get a sense of what they think.

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look, it is like ur blood is still hot for nl

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from the early ages igbo have been praticing true federalism, is that not why they are opposed to the nigerian style of government and marginalisation so what makes anyone think they will do the same thing nigerian govt did to them.

secondly if nigeria breaks up igbo in lagos need not go anywhere except maybe those in civil service , but an igbo man living and working or doing buisness in lagos is the same thing as one in london and atlanta etc so where is he goin?

thirdly i have already treated the propagansa of igbos being landlocked

http://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-569408.0.html

me personally as an igbo man i dont care about polistics or power , i dont have a single uncle or relative in politics they are all manufacturers with factories all over nigeria ,asia and southafrica, buisness men, traders and professionals in their different career, igbo are not and have never been greedy for power.

finally why not allow igbo to worry about their fate if nigeria is to divide, the same way they may be paying you if they are using your port they will recover the money from profit of sales from their manufactured product you will be buyin , its easy add the loss to the sales price so stop fighting it.

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Onlytruth,what is it u are arguing with eku/dapo bear.I thought all this land lock issue was thrashed in the thread called THE TRUE EXTENT OF ALAIGBO. Igboland has never been,is not and will never be landlocked.Where is ezeuche,obiagu1, udezue,ezeagu and andre?

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That way minorities have constitution rights and mechanisms to prevent themselves from being numerically overwhelmed.

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When the laws are in place, ANYONE who wants to do business will do business. It is not an exclusive preserve of any group. I'm just illustrating that folks like myself will be too deep into business to even think about politics or civil service.

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I just think human beings are human beings. Nobody is going to turn down political power if they can have it. Are Igbo not human, that they won't be interested in politics in a country in which they are 80%+ of the population?

Does such exist anywhere else in the world? I don't understand how "We do the economy, minorities do politics" is going to be sustainable longterm. Not to mention, what of minorities who are interested in business and industry?

Too much of this doesn't make sense, just sounds very implausible to me.

Also, Christianity alone is not going to erase ethnicity. Like, there are plenty of examples of countries where the internal beef was between two different Christian sides. . .

EDIT: ethnicity misspelled

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i already answered that

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Eastern Nigeria is the most peaceful part of Nigeria, even before the coming of the European and since Nigeria became a country. There has never been intertribal wars in eastern Nigeria.

There has been intra-community conflicts, but NOT inter-tribal wars.

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Maybe my understanding of the situation is completely wrong. Would be nice if some of the Eastern minorities on this forum could chime in.

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Thank you for this comment!

The guy keeps trying his best to prove that eastern minorities will not want to go with Igbo, or that Igboland will be landlocked, as if it concerns him, or as if he knows my IMMEDIATE neighbors more than me.

He has shifted to Ijaw, but I will leave him to believe what he wants. The topic is "when oil finishes, what next."

I guess we shall see then.

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I have no clue what his position is, and am trying to understand what he is seeing through his "eyes", so to speak. My hunch is that he thinks is that the remaining states in Nigeria (e.g., a hypothetical Odua Republic, Arewa, etc) will be much less successful if Nigeria breaks apart than if the status quo is maintained. So maybe he feels that Yoruba are pro-Nigeria because in his mind, their lot would be worse off if Nigeria falls apart.

Again, I don't quite understand his perspective, but this is my guess. Like, his perspective is clearly wrong for the Ijaw, right? If the Ijaw got a republic of their own, they would be wayyyy better off. I feel that my own ethnicity would be better off, too. But perhaps he implicitly disagrees. . .

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You do realize that if any of the three major groups leaves, Nigeria will immediately split? Saying that if the Igbo leave then Nigeria will cease to be is accurate but maybe you're attributing to Onlytruth the idea that all the other groups in Nigeria will fail without the Igbo. I'm not certain that that's his position.

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So long story short, it is his position that Nigeria will die if Igbos leave? Is this why he constantly says things like, "coward", "lazy", etc?

Under his hypothesis, I can sort of his see his perspective. But at the same time, imo another plausible hypothesis is that Igbo leaving/staying will not have a significant impact one way or another on the remaining groups of Nigeria. This latter hypothesis is my own personal belief.

It is fine to have a hypothesis, but imo wrong to assume that everyone else is working under the same assumption. Especially in a discourse like this. Makes no sense to assume everyone believes the same things you do.

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As someone has stated before its not what Nigeria has got, its what we do with what we have got. Undeveloped beaches, historical sites (benin) for tourism, masses of undeveloped land and unused natural resources. This needs to change

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The way folks with dubious intent talk about Igboland and eastern Nigeria gets one insulted and offended.

Here is a video of Annang (Akwa Ibom) cultural song/dance. For those of you dissecting between a leopard and jaguar, can you tell that this is NOT Igbo without me telling you?

[flash=480,385]

"[/flash]

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Onlytruth, that is an entire 13 page article. The 7th page of that article may be what DapoBear is referring to and not the 1st page. He will probably clarify and maybe quote the relevant parts. If you cannot access the article though, try going to a university library or something sometime if you're still interested in reading it.

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Well, another option for them is independence. No real reason for them to necessarily join another country.

Anyway, regarding your statement. . . I wonder. Southern Cameroons for example had a plebiscite and left to join Cameroon instead of Nigeria. I've read something indicating that part of the reason they made this decision was due to dislike of the Igbo (see here: http://www.jstor.org/pss/523673).

Anyway, you seem to have great confidence about what decision another ethnicity would make. Hopefully you are correct.

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Anyway, while it is a loss to lose people, ultimately they can be replaced; people from all over W. Africa move to Lagos. And certainly whatever property/infrastructure they built cannot be carried on their backs with them; it will presumably be sold by those leaving and manned by whoever purchases. I'm fine with that outcome.

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That topic has been discussed in GREAT DETAIL here on nairaland. Search for it.

My point remains that it is in their interest to join the Igbo. They would lose more if they don't. Let's end it there.

Meanwhile shouldn't you be busy wondering how YOU will survive a deflated Lagos with area boys reining supreme now that Igbo boys are gone?

We will build an electric fence to check them.

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Regarding rivers, you cannot sail down the river owned by another man. He will charge you fees to use it. Or which river directly connected to the Atlantic is wholly in Igboland?

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Look, I'm not really here to convince anyone.

Once oil finishes, you will find out that out of about $100 billion annual income to eastern parts of Nigeria, 97% will be from EXPORT of FINISHED GOODs -automobile and technological equipment made in Igboland. The coastal guys can decide to get allocations of $20 -$50 billion annually by joining us, or we pay them $200 million a year for allowing us use their ports. If they refuse, we use Cameroon for even less. All these is assuming anyone will be insane enough to try to seize Igbolands accessing the sea by the rivers.  And yes there are Igbo in Akwa Ibom and Cross rivers. They may be few but they are there.

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Why would Cross Rivers and Akwa Ibom join for free? Why not instead maintain independence and charge import/export duties? Surely it is more profitable to do this than to join Biafra, is it not?

It isn't as if they are Igbo in CR or AI. Why would they gift Biafra with access to the sea? It is a valuable resource that me personally I'd extract every penny I could from. Can you imagine how profitable it would be taking a large cut of everything that leaves Biafra and enters it?

In any case, Botswana has a tiny population. What, 2 million people in a land filled with diamonds, arable land, cattle farms, agriculture, etc. Obviously it is easy to build an enormously wealthy country if your land is filled with diamonds and not overpopulated.

I know less about the factors for Switzerland's success, though.

Still, I'm not too worried about the longterm growth and economic security of Lagos. The 8% population growth of the state probably is not entirely from Igboland, lol. Whoever leaves can and will be replaced.

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Sudan is NOT landlocked, yet terrible. Zaire is not really landlocked.

You ignored a typical African country which Biafra or Igboland will LIKELY be similar to -90% Christian- BOTSWANA.

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And I am taking the basest view. Igboland will not be landlocked in any case. Again, I am convince that our immediate minority neighbors will become more realistic once oil wells dry up.

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As you know, Switzerland is landlocked and still more successful than Somalia with one of the longest sea coasts in Africa. Even Botswana is landlocked but still more stable and richer than Somalia.

As for our wealth outside Igboland, they can be repatriated one way or the other. The only thing is that property values will skyrocket in Igboland but collapse in Lagos and other areas.

With our "can do" spirit -which is worth more than gold- we are unstoppable.

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You're thinking that when Nigeria breaks, some of those coastal states wont be joining with their bros/sis? States like Cross River and AI?

I thought Biafra was not only about Igbo states?

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Think practically. Your landlocked country produces potatoes. The only way to export them is through your neighbor X, who controls the sea. What if he charges a 15 or 20% export fee on your potatoes? You see how this sucks away your competitive advantage and thus profitability, right? He is basically taking at 15% cut on EVERYTHING you export! And imagine if he takes a 15% cut on everything you import, too?

Like I said, there is a good reason almost no landlocked country in the world is successful. It is hard to compete when you pay more to produce/buy stuff than other people do.

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I have to disagree here. Being landlocked means nothing. Diplomacy doesnt end with the breakage.

I personally think they'll survive too. If the best is breakage, so shall it be. Each on their way, abeg.

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best of all outcomes. The best of all outcomes imo is political mastery over our region, aggressively using our federal allocations to build up our territory, and then proceeding from there. Just because Situation A is good doesn't mean you'll agitate for it if Situation B is better. And it is starting to appear that we will be able to achieve Situation B by simply kicking the PDP out of the Southwest and installed good leaders like Fashola in our land.

Regarding the Igbo and how they'd vote . . . personally, me if I were Igbo, I wouldn't be interested in leaving. Being a landlocked country kind of sucks. It is really hard for me to think of any nations on earth without access to the sea which are doing well. Not to mention issues like erosion, a lot of your wealth being outside of your territory. . .

Anyway, to each his own, you guys do what you think best for your people.

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Why do you like lying to yourself?

Put up a poll here and ask your Yoruba folks to vote about staying in Nigeria or leaving and I guarantee you will get at least 85% wanting to stay.

Do the same thing and ask Igbos and you will get the OPPOSITE.

Keep lying to yourself.

Like I said, WHEN the oil finishes, we shall know who really wants to stay with who, and I will get my respect as an Igbo man then.

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Stop comparing sleep with death.

Landlocked countries in Africa dont thrive

Just too many examples: Mali, Sudan, Zaire

And like eku_Bear articulated above, they just wont be able to compete.

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I think we already know who wants to stay in Nigeria, right? Those without oil, those who would be landlocked. Fortunately for my people, we have both oil and access to the sea. Oil isn't much, but it is good enough to fund other industries.

And of course, we have the wonderful city/metropolis of Lagos. This is our ace card. I feel pretty good about our future if (when?) Nigeria separates.

EDIT: typos

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hmmm ileke-idi is hot oo and because of that yoruba is goin nowhere wheter oil finish or not.

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Me and your neighbor = Good taste.

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^^^

Who knows why?

Maybe she doesnt want to be hit on by eku_bear

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Ileke, why are you lying about your age? I recognize that table, my neighbor has one that looks exactly like it. Like, literally exactly.

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If we want to break, we will leave cleanly

Yoruba style; smartly, bloodlessly, and proudly!

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Thanks, again.

23yrs ago. . .

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Lol!

Lovely profile pic nevertheless!

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Hehehe, we dont want it anymore. If this our Yoruba leaders can get themselves together so that we can break free to meet our brothers in Benin/Peurto Rico. Becommrich WILL be our president.

Dnt jelos us.

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