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Who would win : MEND or JTF?

I have been observing the reported military onslaught on the Niger Delta, and I'm left with some disturbing observations.

Honestly, I am begining to doubt our military's true capabilities.

These questions keep ringing in my head:

1) The[b] JTF/Military[/b] claimed to have dealt a heavy blow on the MEND/Militants.

My question: How come no militants have been arrested? How come there are no dead bodies of the militants? How come there are no figures to the number of militants killed.

On the other hand, there are numerous reports that the military has lost almost 20 soldiers if not more.

2)[/b]How come the [b]MEND/Militants were able to destroy five critical flow station pipelines yesterday when the JTF/Military is said to have taken over the creeks.

3)[/b]Why haven't any journalists, local or Foreign been allowed to independently assess the situation in the creeks? To the best of my knowledge, in the heat of the Iraq war, CNN, BBC and the likes were allowed freedom to film and report as the war proceeded. This is not even a war, how come no journalists are  reporting.

I'm neutral. I care less about the[b] military or the[b] militants[/b], they are both fighters and killers, but I'm  thinking the Militants are acting more responsibly than the military. Bad that they are kidnappers, but they haven't killed innocent citizens like the JTF is doing.

The Government labels the militants Oil theives! What immorality. A pot is calling a kettle black.

If theft of oil is a justification for attacking the militant camps, then the first place to attack should be politicians homes in Abuja.

The biggest thieves in Nigeria are the politicians. Their theft is responsible for all the problems Nigeria faces. We read daily of billions they steal. We see it in the houses they build, the cars they drive and and stashes of foreign currency they place in offshore bank accounts.

My Fear however, is the mentality of these Abuja/ Yar Adua types. By Abuja I mean the politicians in the executive and the legislative arm of Government from all states in Nigeria. By Abuja/YarAdua types I also mean the Northern Cabal that has held and keeps holding the Nation Hostage for selfish reasons that haven't been able to lift their citizens from abject poverty.

Why is it much easier to plan and execute a military operation , than to plan and execute a proper development program not just for the Niger Delta, but for the whole nation.

I see a very tactical blunder by Abuja in their decision to attack the militants. If the MEND succeeds in diminishing the country's capacity to export crude, where will Government get the finances to pay salaries, to import crude, to finance the already hugely deficited budgets, etc?

The cost to the Nation would be enormous and we might then begin to understand that the Niger Delta really lays the eggs that feed the nation.

The Federal government said (even b4 the present crises) it loses approximately N9 billion daily to the crisis in the Niger Delta.

That is N90 billion in ten days and N900 billion in 100 days.

In a year that is a whooping 3.3 trillion Naira! These are real figures, they aren't made up!

If you take just a quarter of that amount say 800 billion and expend it judiciously on infrastructural and human capacity development in the Niger

Delta, I bet you, the problem would be solved for ever. The citizens of the Niger Delta would be the first to throw stones at any militant that dares to kidnap even a monkey!

My point is simple. No amount of ammunitions on the part of the Federal Government would solve the problem. The solution lies in one word! Sincerety! A sincere desire to solve the problem is all it takes.

If it is easy to use N247 billion on just one road in Abuja,  why should it be so hard to expend judiciously in the areas that contribute the most.

A sincere desire to solve the problems would lead us to true federalism. True federalism doesn't necessarily mean full resource control.

True federalism would allow each and every area develop itself to its full capacity. That should solve to a large part, the problem in the Niger Delta.

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33 answers

@Ehoi. You forgot one other point; MEND phone up the thug armies politicians have aquired, "re-kit" them and use them right back against the system that created them. It is a lose-lose situation for the system.

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I see a lot of people are still ignorant about the niger delta conflict. Lets take the Boko haram as an example. The army crushed them within days but they have not been able to win the niger delta rebels for years evens after buying all sort of weapons the reason is

1 TERRAIN 1. The niger delta has more than a thousand creeks and the swampy terrain is the hardest place to fight against a guerilla army. This means the nigeria army cannot take their heavy weapons like tanks into the battle. The only thing they can take is their gunboat and the gun each soldier carries. This brings them to the same level as the militant. Infact it almost brings them to a lower level because we know MEND fighters carry more sophisticated guns and they also wear body armour.

TERRAIN 2 The nature of the war leave the army bare and unprotected. About 20 soldiers have to cram into a gun boat and go looking for the militants. Twenty soldiers in a gunboat are like a sitting duck for any attack. A militant with the right weapon hiding in the right place will kill all 20 soldiers with one shot. It is instructive to note that nigerian soldiers are dying in batches in the delta. First 12 died before the JTF onslaught. Before two weeks after, there were reports of another 20 dying all together. Remember the militants have not yet started looking for nigerian soldiers to kill. When they start to do that, we would be bringing thousand of bodies bags of soldiers from the creeks every month. Just imagine two militants hide in a position for weeks waiting for JTF gunboat to come by. Then multiply that by 500. The JTF have no chance at all. I advice everyone who has a relation in the army to warn them not to go to the delta. Its a suicide mission for the soldiers. The militants know the creeks like the back of their hands while the soldiers are strangers in a crocodile infested land.

TERRAIN 3. The advantage of air support is greatly reduced in the niger delta terrain. The mangrove swamp act as a good canopy hence the movement of militants beneath them is invisible to any plane or helicopter above. hence the big air advantage the army is suppose to have is rudeced from 100% to 20%.

GUERRILLA TACTIC. Before the JTF onslaught, the miliatnst use to have a permanent camp. But after it, the militants are now acting like a true guerrilla outfit. Something that is very dangerous for the army. Now the army don't have any target to bomb because the militants no longer have a fixed target.

LOCAL SUPPORT. The militants have all the local support they need hence to be able to eliminate MEND and other militant groups, you will need to kell everyone in the creeks. Even old women and old men support them.

To the person that said the militants are not more than 1000, i laugh. They are actually more than 60, 000 togehter. Why do people think after so many attemps they are still standing and even stronger today than ever before. Personally, I believe they also have international support or international cover. How come nigeria is not able to trace the email address of Mr Gbomo. He even does some live interview yet his account or location cannot be traced? I believe they are countries using their intelligence to protect him. America that predicted the demise of nigeria before 2015 are not fools. mr Gbomo might be somewhere in the USA sending emails. Nigeria have a battle in their hands. The nigerian army have finally met their match.

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since the break up of the soviet union, these things are more accessible. It is a question of when and not if.

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@ Sapeleguy

how many terrorist groups you know have access to nuclear bombs.

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MEND will win.

These will help.

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WHEN PPL TALK ABOUT PATRIOTISM ON THIS KIND OF ISSUES I DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THEY MEAN

ARE U ASKING ME TO BE LOYAL TO A COUNTRY THAT DOES NOT KNOW THAT I EXIST

OR THAT DOES NOT CARE WHAT I DO WITH MYSELF AND HAS FAILED ME CONSISTENTLY OVER THE PAST TWENTY YEARS ?

MY PEOPLE SAY THAT PAPA WHEN NO GIVE PIKIN FOOD CHOP NO FIT SEND AM MESSAGE !

NIGERIA HAS NO RIGHT TO ASK ME FOR PATIOTISM .

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This is not about Biafra. Do you really think, that if your 'incident' happens it will be impossible to set up similar incidents in North, East & West?

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@FACE

and you stop quoting what you're clueless about.

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Please dont say what you know nothing about.

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awesome statement man. It's speaks volumes

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I get quite confused when some individual comes onto a thread and boldly brandishes their ignorance by referring to Surface to Air Missiles as top secret U.S intelligence. I bow to you my fellow Nigerian.

I have said this before. When ordinary Mai Tatsine was disturbing the peace in the North, everyone claimed that the Nigerian Military could not defeat his army of kids. OPC came and people claimed their Juju could not be surmounted. There are all sorts of armed groups that have made their mark, but they were still quenched.

The Biafrans were the best prepared, the best organised, the most armed and with the largest armed forces. Besides also having an Airforce, they had Mercenary Swiss, French and Swedish fighters. They had as much supply of arms and communition as they wished to acquire from France, through Guinea, Cameroun and various other nations. They had a well organised propaganda media structure in Europe which drew foreign support, they had Radio Biafra at home and they were fighting a more genuine cause with more dedicated personnel. There was also discipline, for once in a while, Generals who failed woefully were sent to the firing squad. I know most of you are unaware of that.

Tell me, could it even have been possible for MEND or and band of kidnapping touts to challenge just a percent of that ruthless Biafran Military and survived?

I have said it before. If we want to end this melee in a week, all we need do is promise our Chinese allies that CNOOC would get a couple of oilwells, and they will set up a thermonuclear incident whose fallout will span Rivers to Ondo and take out every mammal that remains in the zone. All this JTF vs MEND is just for show.

When it hits the fan, MEND know they're no match. Let's all continue to hope somebody in Abuja is not taking this matter personal.

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You have little idea what you talk about.

First, the creeks are a much more difficult terrain than the jungle.

While meandering through a jungle is predictably monotonous, on the other hand, every new creek you see is an entirely new terrain.

Worse still, the Nigerian Navy nor the Army never trained in the creeks as their initial job description was to protect our borders, hence they restricted their combat training to the high seas.

There is no greater nightmare for the military than to have to meander through the Niger Delta creeks, as every bend poses a danger  cos militants could lay ambush on the other side.

I'm still amazed that up until this day, the military hasn't captured or claimed to have killed any large number of militants.

These people have wives, kids, parents and families?? Do the innocent hundreds they killed not have loved ones too?

If you've ever been to the Niger Delta, you'd know that over 80% of the JTF is of the Hausa/Fulani Stock!

The JTF is whose army??

I do not support the militants but I have no choice but to support their ideology in the face of a deliberate attempt by Abuja/ YarAdua types/Northern hegemoists to prevent this nation from experiencing true federalism.

Why is it so hard to just sincerely tackle the real issues??

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@Jakumo

When you think 'creeks', stop visualizing the twisted jungles of Vietnam. There are lots of open spaces the Navy can easily exploit, plus they have unchalleged air superiority.

The Millitants rely on surprise attacks and ambushes in numbers with speedboats. Once their camps are destroyed and the millitants dispersed, their ability as a credible fighting force will take a serious beating.

All the Navy has to do is starve them. Cut off their crude oil buyers, stop the state Governments from giving them 'peace' money and then make sure they kill as many of the millitants as possible to reduce their ranks. That'll do the trick.

Going through the forum, i'm shocked how people exhibit this much lack of patriotism. If a critical eye is cast on MEND, what have they to show for their struggle except to further slowpoke development, create far more insecurity in the Delta and - HORROR OF HORRORS - to open the Pandora's box in Nigeria called Kidnapping.

To put this is perspective, even a brain dead manatee should know that Kidnapping for ransom will NEVER end again in Nigeria.

MEND killed several JTF personnel in cold blood. These people signed up to protect the country, and despite all flaws are our first line of defense - love 'em or hate 'em. These people have wives, kids, parents, families. They were breadwinners and fathers to many families. And all you lot can do is to demonise them, broadly apply a stereotype of them being thieves (even when the level of corruption in the army is merely a reflection of the Nigerian mindset) and sickeningly refer to them as 'dirty stinking Hausas/fulanis' (tell me, when was the last time any of you clowns carried out an assesment of the ethnic composition analysis of the JTF before concluding that all of them come from the north?). Is North = Evil?

Like it or not, the JTF is our army, and we need to avoid this knee-jerk criticism of everything they do. While i strongly criticise the indiscriminate use of force and i despair of the lack of precision shown by an exuberant army corps, they really must react to this provocation by tackling these MEND parasites head on. That is how it is.

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1. I think most people already know what a Surface-To-Air missile is

2. Heat Seeking SAMs have been in existence since the 50s, and they are made and sold by over 30 countries worldwide - Not solely the US. Highly classified my Bottom.

3. While modern SAMs have a higher accuracy, the Afgham war era Sparrow missiles and the SAM 7s aren't nearly 100% accurate. To the fair, they are pretty lethal against helicopters without countermeasures. I really doubt the Naijan helos pack flares. . .

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Mend requires a joker to win the war, they require surface to air launchers these are just like RPG the difference is that once lunched they sense for the heat of the jets before exploding which makes them 100% accurate. That was what the Afghans used in defeating the russians and bring them to their kneels. If the militants are able to secure that weapon in 3days Niger-delta will declare independence from Nigeria. Any tribe thinking of breaking away from the fraud called Nigeria should first think about how to get surface to air missles. Its a highly classified U.S weapon tho! All they need is another charlie wilson in the U.S senate, just as charlie made the Afghan-russian war his personal war. Without the help of charlie to secure the Surface to air lunchers the Afghans would have bleed.

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JTF are just bombing farmlands and then making them up as camps, then they will show some dane guns and their charms as militant stuff. When they are tired and thoroughly beaten they will declare a ceasefire.

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Our Brave Freedom Fighters are winning,

we will keep killing untrained Dirty Stinking Fulani/Hausa/Yoruba soldiers until they leave us alone.

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If the Nigerian Navy wants to end this "war" they now what to do. The militants know they are no match for the Nigerian Armed forces go and ask Liberia and Sierra leone or wait, dont go too far ask OPC Biafra and co.

I dont think armed conflict will solve it on the long run. but the military have a point to make.

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the federal govt is being pushed by the oil companies and the internatioal community, who are in turn pushed by their greed at the expense of lives and property of pple who have been marginalised, oppressed for years. this show how insensitive and brainless our govt is.

i pray god gives mend the power to kill all the nigerian soldiers. this battle cannot be won or lost, what we will have is a resurgence of millitancy. not only in the niger delta, but in other regions of the state. cos ppple are beginging to see the true colours of this our one sided govt.

it is obvious this is so called war is a a crime of genocide, thats why no journalist have been allowed to go in the area and see whats happening, they will allow access only after things die down and they burn the bodies of the innocent pple they are killing.

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With hardly ever a solid footing in the sprawling labyrinth of creeks, quicksand, rivers, poisoned forest and pipelines that is the Niger Delta, and with only a negligible minority of federal troops capable of swimming or treading water well enough to save their own lives, and fewer still as familiar with the theater of battle as are their fanatical adversaries, the odds of combat survival for front-line federal troops are bound to be desperately lower than they are for those elusive ghosts of the water - MEND, in spite of the federal military forces' absolute air superiority and clear numerical advantage in men, materiel and arms.

Armchair generals and internet pundits, baying for blood and calling for a decisive "Little Big Horn" battle that will conclusively vanquish the Niger Delta militiamen, will gradually fall silent as they witness the insurgency drag on into months and then years of cat-and-mouse skirmishes, interspersed with hit-and-run surprise raids, followed by retaliatory search-and-destroy invasions supported by indiscriminate bombardment and air strikes, all in a repeating cycle that inexorably, over time, will choke off Nigeria's only life-blood - oil.

You forget take your tablets today? You are a deluded fool.

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With hardly ever a solid footing in the sprawling labyrinth of creeks, quicksand, rivers, poisoned forest and pipelines that is the Niger Delta, and with only a negligible minority of federal troops capable of swimming or treading water well enough to save their own lives, and fewer still as familiar with the theater of battle as are their fanatical adversaries, the odds of combat survival for front-line federal troops are bound to be desperately lower than they are for those elusive ghosts of the water - MEND, in spite of the federal military forces' absolute air superiority and clear numerical advantage in men, materiel and arms.

Armchair generals and internet pundits, baying for blood and calling for a decisive "Little Big Horn" battle that will conclusively vanquish the Niger Delta militiamen, will gradually fall silent as they witness the insurgency drag on into months and then years of cat-and-mouse skirmishes, interspersed with hit-and-run surprise raids, followed by retaliatory search-and-destroy invasions supported by indiscriminate bombardment and air strikes, all in a repeating cycle that inexorably, over time, will choke off Nigeria's only life-blood - oil.

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if thisis the way some of u think then am afraid that niaja is finished.ppl justify what politicians do but accuse the militants,am a niger deltan but what have i benefitted,aam a nigerian what have i benefitted,if ppl cannot be objective let them find something else to do,

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They've come in all names and sizes: Mai Tatsine, Biafra, OPC, Bakassi, and they were hailed as indestructible, but they have always and will always be annihilated.

It just takes final decision making. The MEND we're all talking about is out there blowing up oil installations and facilities. Let's not forget that some of these oil facilities utilise some very nuclear materials. I could arrange a nuclear accident that could clean out the whole place. The whole JTF moving around in the jungle is just treating the issue with kid's gloves. So think of it. We're their children and they're just trying to scold us a little. In terms of all out "gbeghe" MEND is no match to a percent of the Biafran Military.

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Where is the dead body of the Militants? Is like Pharaoh wife asking Pharaoh were is Moses blood before he strike. before they bring News where is the Evidence.

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@poster

militants were among the over 1200 killed, about 150 or so militants have been arrested and a large catchment of arms were recovered! dont you listen to news? mend were able to strike again but on a small scale compared to what they usually do after attacks by the military,the foreign news media actually carried the story of the destruction of camp5

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Na only Nigeria body them for they get power Why them nur go claim the land which Cameroon collect from them.silly Zombie Army

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@xterra2 Who are you? tell me truth don't lie. Your papa na Politician or soldier pi kin.Do you understand what you just quote, wonderful. Are you telling me that those Mend Are holding your country ransom maybe you forget your brain somewhere else.You need to think before you talk thrash.I don't hate Nigeria those your Leader not my leader sending those Zombie to kills Innocent peoples must be kills.Obj and Yara dua who is stealing and looting billions of dollar and rigging election you don't say they are holding your country ransom and destroying the Imagine of Nigeria.

Those peoples cant sit back and fold their hands when Obj kills them if you forgot the misery they face and the govt make them carry arms. I will advice you to read back what Obj did to the Niger Delta

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@OneNaija.

First and foremost,You HATE NAIJA,I dont think you are patriotic,you arent,if really you are why would you be supporting some groups of criminally minded idiots called Militants.im sure they are not up to a thousand or two.And they are the same people that hold our Nation to Ransom?They also are the people that are destroying our country's image.They also bring insecurity in the Niger delta Region.

MEND should be eliminated!period!!!!And i think the JTF is winning its just a matter of Weeks and MEND will be History!!!

Support whats better for your country,let your country be A secure place and with a better image abroad

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Up Mend. They Need my support. Kills all the Nigeria Army.

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no victor no vanguish one naija. but the nigeria politician are more dangerous than the militants how many war have the federal government carry against those cabal that send the power sector to darkness.

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when a country is at war with itself, nobody wins

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